Sunday, July 11, 2010

Guessing the Future

A Libyan ship, the Malthea, is headed for Gaza with 2,000 tons of rice, sugar and corn oil. The Israelis say the ship will not be allowed to proceed to Gaza but will be instructed to divert to Ashdod. And if the crew doesn't obey it will commandeer the ship.

So what's likely to happen?

I have often noticed when some crisis is coming to a head that predicting the outcome is very difficult. Oftentimes, I write down everything that I think might happen and something else happens instead, something I'd never dreamed of. No wonder military planners have often noted that battle plans never survive the contact with the enemy. Something unexpected happens, something not in the plan, and the plans have to be abandoned for on the spot improvisation

So what is the range of possible outcomes?

As a result of international appeals by the United States or the UN the ship never leaves port.
The ship lands in Gaza.
The Israelis sink the ship.
The ship decides to turn back.
Israelis commander the boat and take it to Ashdod.
The ship steams in circles in international waters and doesn't do much of anything.
The crew scuttles the ship.
A third country intervenes, such as Egypt or America and escorts it away.
There's a big fight, people get killed and other countries send their navies to assist. The United States has to intervene to prevent war.
A big mid-east war starts.

My guess? I think the ship will go to Egypt. To turn back is humiliating. The Israelis won't let it land. Going to another Muslim country preserves the ship's honor. The ship can't fight Israeli navy. So it will go to Egypt.

Now all we have to do is wait for something I hadn't thought of to happen--like the ship just disappears. No one can find it on radar or satellite imagery. It's a complete mystery.

No comments:

About Me

My photo
Eagle Rock (Los Angeles), California, United States
I write articles, columns, books, very occasional screenplays and make amateur videos. I also maintain a dozen or so blog sites, some better than others.